The Indian stock market had this great bull run for the last few years which started after the US attacked Iraq ie March2003. People who were normally used to the rise and fall were in for surprise when there was no fall and then the assertion from Mr Mukesh Ambani during the 2nd half of 2003 that Reliance Industries would not raise fresh capital from the markets clearly gave the view that corporate were sitting on piles of free cash. People who had seen the IT rise and crash were too hestitant or not willing to believe that this bull run was for real. Almost everyone sold the shares the moment the Sensex moved up by 1000 points but the Sensex continued uninterupted.
The same people who thought it was a right decision to sell when the Sensex was at 4000 considered it was right decision to buy at 8000 and again considered it as right decision to buy again at 12000 till they considered it to buy again at 21000. The Sensex kept on moving and it was the talk of the town with every TV channels eager to start their own business channel with its analysts giving vague ideas to lay men on which stock to buy and which one to sell.
The spectrum of investors covered everyone from brokers to retail people, doctors to patients, lectureres to students, housewife to working woman and everyone wanted to outsmart the other in terms of investing. Sensex gained more prominance than the TV soaps, housewifes spoke more of Reliance and ITC than regular TV Soaps. Woman started appearing on TV channels to prove that they are as smart as men in investing and taking risk and not tied to only hosuehold work and raising children.
That was the time when everything , everyone touched turned into gold and everyone made profits. People made tons and tons of money with good, bad and penny stocks and evrything was going good for the India and the Sensex in all sense. The analysts on TV kept on revising their targets by few thousand points every quarter and everyone was eager to accept what the analysts said.
Then, the begining of the new year 2008 started with a bang and a bang again, the markets just crashed and kept on crashing and crashed the hopes of millions of smart investors who expected a V shaped recovery the way it did all the last few years but the markets didnt have the rush to move up and people kept on investing falling to except that the Sensex has once again outsmarted them again in their own game taking it below 13000 which was a major support level and now below 8000 from the levels of 21000. Few have excepted their mistakes and decided to get back with their work, housewives have started taking good care of their family , the working class has been more productivity this year, the students and lecturers have started taking their classes and career seriously and have come to terms that the SENSEX is the big boss in its field and no person can outsmart it nor can anyone time it.
Sensex is not for weak hearts, here you dont need to follow the herd but you need to go against the herd ie " be greedy when others are scared ". The same people who bought, borrowed and begged to invest when Sensex were at 21000 levels are hesitant to invest now when the Sensex is at 8000 levels. Companies are not about numbers its the value which each company holds, there are lot of companies which are of great value at 8000-9000 Sensex, the time is right to buy and not be away. The Sensex might still drfit but if it moved up then the guys sitting outside will still be sitting outside cursing themselves as to why they didnt invest. The time is now - Dec 2008, Sensex below 8000 - take the same risk again which everyone took at 21000 and invest, the Sensex is bound to recover sooner or later and good days will be back again. Why dont you look at crude; thats atrractive too.
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